Oil Will Remain King by 2040
BP Energy Outlook: Despite growth of Electric Vehicles, oil will remain king by 2040
The 2018 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook
published in February this year, considers the forces shaping the global
energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding
that transition. The Outlook considers several
scenarios and explores the energy transition from three different
viewpoints such as: fuels; sectors; and regions.
Transport energy demand growth by only
25% despite total demand for transportation more than doubling,
reflecting accelerating gains in vehicle efficiency. The transport
sector continues to be dominated by oil (around 85% in 2040), despite
increasing penetration of alternative fuels – particularly natural gas
and electricity.
This year’s Outlook argues that the
penetration of electricity in the transport sector is best measured by
considering both the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and how
intensively each vehicle is used. In the evolving transition scenario,
the share of EVs in the global car park reaches around 15% by 2040 –
more than 300 million cars in a car park of almost 2 billion. “The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil
demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers – even with really rapid growth,”
explains Spencer Dale, Group Chief Economist at BP. “Even in the
scenario where we see an ICE ban and very high efficiency standards, oil
demand is still higher in 2040 than it is today.”
Source: Petrol Plaza Newsletter, March, 2018
Fuel Volumes Hit Coles 1st Half Results
Coles reported revenue of $2,922 million
for the first half, 8.1 per cent lower than the prior corresponding
period due to lower fuel volumes. According to (parent company)
Wesfarmers’ half-year report, the ongoing impact of changes to the
commercial terms with its Alliance partner and lower fuel volumes
resulted in lower earnings for the half.
Total convenience-store (which includes
Coles Express service stations) sales increased 0.9 per cent for the
first half, or 0.4 per cent on a comparable store basis. Wesfarmers says
growth in convenience-store sales continued to be driven by strong
double-digit growth in the food-to-go category, and refurbishment of the
store network.
Total fuel volumes for the half declined
by 18.6 per cent, with comparable volumes declining 19.3 per cent. As
at December 31, 2017, there were 712 Coles Express sites, with 12 new
sites opened and two sites closed during the period.
Source: Australian Food News, February 27, 2018
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